Preamble:
Our independent evaluation of the political situation in Ogun State as at this morning, 24th October, 2026, shows that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in Ogun is in total crisis and on the verge of collapse ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Our Findings:
1. GOVERNORSHIP TICKET MISSING FROM INEC FINAL LIST
- The INEC final list of governorship candidates for the February 6, 2027 election was published on October 10, 2026. It contains 13 candidates for Ogun State, but the PDP column is blank.
- The names of Chief Ladi Adebutu and his running mate, Mrs. Yemi Sowunmi-Kolapo, are conspicuously absent.
- On October 13, INEC explained that parties that failed to submit their membership register in compliance with Section 77 of the Electoral Act 2026 would not be allowed to field candidates. The allegation is that Adebutu's name was not in the register submitted to INEC.
2. PDP RESPONSE AND THE LEGAL QUESTION
- The PDP claims Adebutu never left the party, that he did digital registration, has a membership card, and that his details were verified and submitted.
- The critical legal question Egba Unity Group asks: _Was he on the register submitted to INEC by the Wike faction as specified by the Electoral Act?_ This is the crux of Section 77(4) compliance.
- To cure the defect, PDP National filed a sworn affidavit on October 15 at the Federal High Court, Abuja, invoking Section 32(2) of the Electoral Act 2026, which gives a party 14 days to complain about omission from the final list.
- *Deadline is today, October 24, 2026.* If INEC does not restore him, the only option left is litigation. Hence, his candidacy is in limbo.
3. INTERNAL SABOTAGE - THE TOPE OLUSEGUN PETER DRAMA
- In a bizarre twist, one Tope Olusegun Peter, through his lawyers, wrote to INEC giving a 48-hour ultimatum to publish his name as the authentic PDP governorship candidate.
- However, on October 17, the same Tope held a press conference in Abeokuta and denied ever purchasing a governorship nomination form, stating he knows nothing about the aspiration and that someone is using his name for mischief.
- He further alleged that an APC chieftain, Kayode Oladele, promised him a car, money and appointment after Senator Solomon Adeola Yayi emerged as APC candidate.
- The question remains: Who is the authentic PDP candidate in Ogun?
4. MASS DEFECTIONS
- The crisis has triggered mass defections. Information available shows PDP members and newly converted members are expected to leave in droves in coming days, having lost confidence in the party's capacity to be on the ballot.
5. OGUN CENTRAL SENATE - STILL UNDER SEARCHLIGHT
- While the PDP still has Prof. Iyabo Obasanjo-Bello on INEC's final list for Ogun Central, she is also under the Electoral Law searchlight from several quarters.
- A case challenging her nomination, Suit No. FHC/AB/CS/117/2026 filed by Sogbesan Amoo, is pending at the Federal High Court, Abeokuta and comes up on November 3, 2026. The suit alleges non-compliance with membership register and primary requirements. This is outside of the big hammer over her ambition, due to the Supreme Court judgment, which is expected to be the final blow to her Senatorial Ambition.
CONCLUSION & IMPLICATION FOR NDC:
The structure of the PDP in Ogun Central is collapsing. Ward chairmen and polling unit canvassers are being poached due to uncertainty over the party's ballot status.
This presents a golden opportunity for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) Senatorial Candidate for Ogun Central, *Hon. Rotimi George-Taylor*, who is stable and commands significant followership, and is on the ballot, and not encumbered by litigation, to welcome and absorb these aggrieved, progressive-minded members who desire a new platform outside of the ruling party APC, for effective representation.
Signed:
Egba Integrity Group
Evaluation & Strategy Desk
Abeokuta | 24th October, 2026
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